Belorussian nuclear poker

Belorussia government plans to carry out tender for purchasing equipment for the first Belorussian NPP. In 80-ies Belorussia prepared the site for construction, but Chernobyl accident postponed the construction for twenty years.

Belorussia has consistent problems with provision of its economy. It imports 93% of oil and gas from Russia. Up to now gas comes to Belorussia with the cost in 2,8 times below the average European prices. Up to July 1 Belorussia paid only 55 % of these subsidy prices. In 2006 subsidy of Russia accounted for about USA$ 7 billion.

So formally NPP with two units should provide essential economy of natural gas. The fact is that Belorussia, the north country, needs in heat more than in electricity. NPP will solve the problem of heat support only partially. First of all, Belorussia needs NPP from the political aspect.

Belorussian president Alexander Lukashenko understands well the importance of appearance of peaceful atom in the country. He considered the experience of the North Korea, where existence of operating reactor had a paralyzing effect on USA and gave Pyongyang an opportunity to blackmail.

NPP in Belorussia can be an instrument for blackmailing of the world community. Besides, mobilization of people around future construction "victory" will support the ruling regime for decades.

However, nobody announced international sanctions against NPP construction in Belorussia. Formally Belorussia can begin construction immediately. Meantime, it is known, NPP will be constructed near Mogilev in 550 km from Moscow. Naturally Belorussian president cannot but use this fact for blackmailing Russian government.

Today three countries USA, France and Russia construct NPPs. Due to politics USA was excluded from consideration. At the same time the appearance of Russian specialists is undesirable for Lukashenko. By opinion of Belorussian politicians, on the one hand, Belorussia has a global dependence on Russian fossil fuel, on the other hand, construction of Belorussian NPP by Russian specialists doesn't give a chance to Minsk to use NPP as an instrument for international influence and political pressure.

Construction of NPP by French company Areva is unlikely. French government understands the sum of political risks of Belorussian NPP construction. It should be noted that Belorussia had negotiated with French side several times and even told that the Sides reached the Agreement. But really there is no agreement with Paris.

Construction of Belorussian NPP is of great importance for Russia. Belorussia has received never yet seen financial, resource and political support. For the last 10 year Moscow invested more USA $ 42 bln and it can claim for more in this small European country being our ally and partner in foundation of the Union State.

The announcement of Tender for construction of NPP coincided with new gas crisis between Belorussia and Gasprom. Actually Byelorussia has rejected to pay for gas obtained since January 1 by new prices USA$ 100 per cubic meter. From January till June 2007 Minsk had privilege and paid only USA$ 55 per cubic meter at Belorussia's request to give Belorussia time for adaptation to the new prices. On the whole, the debt was USA$ 450 million - very significant sum for Belorussia.

In June Belorussia has received USA$ 625 million from Gazprom for 12.5% shares of Beltransgaz. However, Belorussia didn't want to pay off gas already received.

Now Belorussian government is sure that their debt won't be forgiven and Belorussia finds any excuses to keep price for gas at the level of 2006. Belorussa says about the great brotherhood of nations, memories of the Great Patriotic War etc. Tender for NPP construction is another trick of the Belorussian side.

Actually Byelorussia has suggested to Russia the deal - Russia will forgive Belorussia's debt today in return Belorussia will promise the win of Russia in tender for NPP construction tomorrow. For Russian credit. Will this "wonderful "tomorrow" be realized - questionable matter.

SOURCE: AtomInfo.Ru

DATE: August 06, 2007

Topics: NPP, Russia, Belarus